Manuscript Psy03-A@1 · Psy03-A.tex · theorem · b30eb6e9

Theorem: Bounded complete-record test

Robust complete-record contrasts and identification › Sampling a retained gap · lines 1982–2013 · proof included or linked

Psy03-A@1#thm:test

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If actual null scores have mean at most , alternative scores have mean at least , and , then independent attempted runs with a midpoint threshold have

Thus

controls each error by .

The same bound holds for dependent runs if the corresponding mean bounds hold conditional on every past record. Unconditional mean bounds alone are insufficient.

Proof. For independence, apply Hoeffding's inequality at distance Hoeffding. For dependence, the conditional bounded-variable exponential bound is

Iterate and optimize. Repeating one common Bernoulli outcome shows the failure under arbitrary dependence.

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