Manuscript Psy03-A@1 · Psy03-A.tex · theorem · b30eb6e9
Theorem: Bounded complete-record test
Robust complete-record contrasts and identification › Sampling a retained gap · lines 1982–2013 · proof included or linked
Psy03-A@1#thm:test
If actual null scores have mean at most , alternative scores have mean at least , and , then independent attempted runs with a midpoint threshold have
Thus
controls each error by .
The same bound holds for dependent runs if the corresponding mean bounds hold conditional on every past record. Unconditional mean bounds alone are insufficient.
Proof. For independence, apply Hoeffding's inequality at distance Hoeffding. For dependence, the conditional bounded-variable exponential bound is
Iterate and optimize. Repeating one common Bernoulli outcome shows the failure under arbitrary dependence.
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