Manuscript Psy03-D@1 · Psy03-D-v1.tex · proposition · 3e18951d

Proposition: A chance pattern is possible

Recovery patterns and censoring · lines 1274–1296 · proof included or linked

Psy03-D@1#prop:chancepattern

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For an independent Bernoulli correctness process with success probability , one five-trial window satisfies the criterion with probability

At , this is . At , it is .

For , the probability of at least one qualifying window is at most

Proof. Sum the probabilities of exactly four and five successes. Use a union bound over windows. Their overlap does not affect the validity of that upper bound.

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