Manuscript Psy03-D@1 · Psy03-D-v1.tex · proposition · 3e18951d
Proposition: A chance pattern is possible
Recovery patterns and censoring · lines 1274–1296 · proof included or linked
Psy03-D@1#prop:chancepattern
For an independent Bernoulli correctness process with success probability , one five-trial window satisfies the criterion with probability
At , this is . At , it is .
For , the probability of at least one qualifying window is at most
Proof. Sum the probabilities of exactly four and five successes. Use a union bound over windows. Their overlap does not affect the validity of that upper bound.
Displayed formulas in this passage
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